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Canada Vs Us Student Loan – 9 million students with over $500 billion in direct annual spending. USD, will travel to study outside their home market by 2030. As American employers face a projected workforce shortage of up to 2.5 million STEM jobs by 2030, youth is shrinking and revitalization is urgently needed. and by developing local skills in strategic areas, the United States must act to protect dwindling access to the world’s best talent.

Since 2018, the Global Student Flow project has been tracking and forecasting the flows of international students studying in higher education institutions around the world. The initiative, supported by leading experts and economists from around the world, with its own global streaming system and advanced technology, is designed to compile and map more than 10,000 unique streams every year. The aim of this initiative is to inform governments, universities, institutions and companies. to the world in setting strategies, policies and allocating resources to support the growth of international education.

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Amid the post-pandemic resurgence of student mobility, the Global Student Flow Project is more active in helping stakeholders provide more detailed forecasts and analysis, starting with the world’s leading study destination, the US. This research note presents the preliminary results of a 12-week effort, including more than 40 interviews with policy makers and economists, higher education sources and destination country experts, as well as the latest versions of our qualitative global flows framework and quantitative forecast models.

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The project will inform thousands of presidents, deans, faculty and staff at the annual meeting of the American Council on Education in Washington, D.C. This week, in addition to IIE, NAFSA and other leading experts for valuable insights and feedback, which will include the final public open source consultation in 2023. Monday, May 22 at 4 p.m. E.T. This first important basis for the US forecast will be the basis for each year when OpenDoors publishes new official historical data at the end of each calendar year. The Global Student Flows Project will synchronize with the IIE/OpenDoors data schedule, releasing a new forecast and outlook in the first semester of each year after extensive expert interviews and quantitative modeling covering more than 10,000 unique combinations of inter-land and deep-sea flows. dives into other important destination streams such as Australia, Canada and the United Kingdom.

To learn more about getting in touch and becoming a strategic partner of the project, more information about the Global Student Stream project, our methodology and contact details can be found in the endnotes.

In the late 1970s, more than 1 million students went abroad to study each year. By 2019, this number exceeded 5 million, which is 196 billion. USD direct annual costs. International education has experienced its share of challenges, and COVID-19 has arguably been the biggest disruption to date. From H5N1 avian flu, 9/11, SARS-CoV, and the global financial crisis/recession, international education has weathered adversity after adversity to demonstrate impressive resilience and the relentless need of millions of professional, undergraduate, and graduate students worldwide. study outside your country.

In the depths of the pandemic, many feared that international education had reached a systemic tipping point and might struggle to regain post-pandemic momentum. But so far the data points to just the opposite: a very strong recovery around the world. For example, higher education in the UK, arguably America’s biggest competitor for top international educational talent, admitted 605,130 international students in the 2020-2021 academic year and is on track to reach 600,000 students in 2030. aim a decade earlier than expected. In response and hailing the incredible progress, the UK government noted that global competition continues to increase as markets reopen as the pandemic recovers. The UK has been clear about the need to avoid complacency, noting that the medium-term impact of the pandemic on both international student enrollments and education exports remains unclear.

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The United States has always been a major destination for international education, impressively so in the 1950s. grew to about 25,000 students and would grow 20-fold over the next 50 years, with more than 500,000 students at the turn of the century. By 2019-2020, the market had grown to 1 million students during the pandemic, with growth apparently slowing to 0.1 percent over the past five years. During the 12-week US International Education 2030 program, we heard from experts from the US, China, India and 8 other “focus” markets predicted to be among the top 20 US source countries in 2030. Figure 2 shows the most likely projection for US international education through 2030, with China and India separated from the rest of the world because they already together account for more than 50% of the student population.

According to the project’s methodology, the most likely prediction is based on a lower 95% confidence interval, an upper 95% confidence interval, and a weak assumption that reflects whether the distribution of expected outcomes is more skewed toward a lower or higher outcome. Input for quantitative modeling is through our qualitative flow framework, which includes 15 push, pull and disruption factors and looks at correlations between various quantitative indicators such as population, economy, travel, currency exchange and more.

In 2000, China accounted for about 10% of international students studying in the US, compared to nearly 35% before the pandemic. The relationship between the US and China is becoming more complex and competitive by the year, implying an uncertain agenda for international learning. While many experts see a possible steady decline in the number of students in China, the United States and other countries, others believe that decisions by students and parents about whether to study in the United States are independent and based on geopolitical considerations. Many US institutions already have very high student demand, with some examples increasing by 20 percent year-over-year, while others are declining quite dramatically. The Open Doors 2023 report will reveal important data to consider, but will likely remain uncertain for some time.

India is an obvious standout country for the program, which is expected to double from 200,000 students today to 400,000 in 2030. While there is still much work to be done to realize this potential, especially in operational matters such as visa management, India will effectively replace China. first source country and will account for approximately 1 in every 3 students in 2030.

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Despite the current projected plateau in Chinese numbers, China and India combined are expected to account for nearly 60% of all US international students. If China becomes stronger than expected, based on today’s assumptions, a simpler way to think about 2030 would be: 1 in 3 students will be from China, 1 in 3 from India and 1 in 3 from countries of long origin.

Apart from China and India, each country of origin promotes greater diversity, while all other destinations compete fiercely for each individual market share of global talent. Figure 3 shows the preliminary 20 US source countries in 2030. prediction. The table shows the ranking of each country in 2022. and the 2030 forecast, in addition to current and projected US flows. The right side of the table shows the most likely market growth rate and lower and upper confidence intervals for each US source country. A wide spread of intervals indicates a high level of uncertainty, with many likely scenarios explaining the difference.

Saudi Arabia, as a case study, is currently the 7th largest source of international students in the US, but the number of students has dropped by two-thirds from 61,000 in 2016. reaching 18,000 in 2022. No country has seen anything like this. leave this century; The only parallel to the past is Iran, whose student flows almost completely dried up after 1979. Islamic revolutions. Will the decline continue or have we bottomed out? Planning ahead of this point is difficult as it is possible to continue the decline to a very low number and a large bounce. The rate of decline has slowed, and our most likely forecast is for annual growth of 3.6%.

Our confidence interval lies between -12% and 14% annual growth, an unusually wide range that reflects the high uncertainty surrounding the main driver, the Saudi government’s stipend. The kingdom has announced at least four new scholarship programs called the Two Holy Mosques Scholarship Program for students to go abroad, thousands of students can participate. This includes a program for students enrolled in the world’s top 400 universities (above the top 200 universities listed by the King Abdullah Scholarship Program), as well as subject scholarships for students studying business or STEM and other fields. . It’s too early to see how the government will interpret the jurisdiction, so find out how it will affect streams.

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The UK, Australia and Canada are taking over from the US and this is likely to continue without a concerted campaign to restore momentum, leadership and growth. America can do well